It’s always fascinating to watch how quickly the market sentiment changes.

We went from everyone on Crypto Twitter bull posting ETH to suddenly a lot of people flipping bearish overnight.

I wanted to share a few market thoughts as well on what’s next.

Let’s zoom out and look at the data 👇

First of all, let’s start with some historical context. Here’s a chart where you can see the BTC price performance during the previous bull cycles:

If you study the past cycles, you’ll see that the timing of the BTC cycle tops has been consistent:

• In 2021, BTC topped in November 2021
• In 2017, BTC topped in December 2017
• In 2013, BTC topped in December 2013

Every cycle peak so far has happened in Q4 of the post-Halving year. (2013, 2017, 2021, and now 2025)

Another interesting observation is that while September is typically one of the weakest months for Bitcoin, October has historically been one of the strongest.

As you can see, while a lot of people are panicking right now because of the recent dip, a market dip around September (late Q3) is not uncommon at all.

If anything, it lines up with what happened in the past.

Does this mean that this cycle will play out the exact same way as the previous ones? Not at all. But while history doesn't repeat itself, it often rhymes.

I have mixed feelings about September, given what happened in the previous cycles, but my belief is that Q4 will be a good quarter for crypto as the final phase of every bull cycle is historically a great one in terms of gains.

Besides seasonality, a few other factors make me think Q4 will be bullish:

• Rate cuts are coming (but for real this time)

Now let’s step outside of crypto for a second. Macro matters.

According to Polymarket, there’s a 64% chance that the FED will cut US interest rates in September. Why is this a big deal?

Because when central banks reduce rates, borrowing becomes cheaper. Lower bond yields also push investors toward riskier investments like crypto.

Historically, major rate cuts have been bullish for risk-on assets.

• Crypto treasury companies keep buying insane amounts of crypto

The numbers here are just staggering.

According to https://www.strategicethreserve.xyz/, over 532k ETH (which is worth over $2 billion atm) has been bought via treasury companies just last week.

And keep in mind that staked Ethereum ETFs haven’t even been approved yet.

Source: https://www.strategicethreserve.xyz/

$2b in weekly buying pressure is an insane tailwind for ETH and altcoins.

Eventually, crypto treasury companies will run out of money, but I find it hard to believe the top of this bull cycle is already in, given the current inflows.

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Another reason why I believe the cycle top isn’t in is the following:

• Very few of the common top signals have already been reached

Searches for "crypto" hit a new 4-year high recently, and Jim Cramer became bullish, which is why I took a small amount of profits earlier this week.

But besides this, none of the other ‘top signals’ I covered last week was recently hit.

For instance, Coinbase’s App Store rank is currently still over 200. Last cycle, it became the number one app on the App Store.

The fear and green index also looks healthy. Despite the recent rally, we haven’t reached insane levels of market euphoria yet. With that being said, ETH, for instance, is up a lot in the past weeks, so a short term correction is normal.

But unless this is the shittiest cycle ever, I don’t think the fun is over.

So, how am I positioning myself for what’s coming next?

As you can see in the post below, one of the best moments to buy post-Halving is historically in late September of the next year after the BTC Halving (the last BTC Halving happened in 2024), as October is typically a fantastic month for BTC.

That’s exactly what I plan to do.

Depending on what narratives will be trending in late September, I’ll pick a few hot tokens at that point to add ahead of Q4 if we get a bigger dip.

Otherwise, I’ll just stick to my current bags.

I’ll then take profits gradually throughout Q4 and significantly reduce my crypto exposure by the end of the year if everything goes as expected.

And that’s basically my current plan.

However, keep in mind that this is a game of probabilities, and many things can change in a few months. As investors/traders, our job is to adapt as new info arises.

We can all just speculate. My advice for you is to try to create your own thesis based on your expectations.

But regardless of what you think will happen in the next months and what your plan is, make sure that risk management remains one of your top priorities.

I’ve said it many times:

The hardest part is not making it, but keeping the money you earned.