The crypto market has recently become a battleground of polarized opinions. Some analysts insist that the bull market is already here, while others argue we’re merely riding the tail end of the last cycle. Neither side has convincingly won the debate — yet perhaps data can provide the clarity that sentiment cannot. Let’s evaluate the current market temperature through the lens of capital flows.

According to research from SuperEx Institute, crypto investment products in the U.S. saw a remarkable $785 million in net inflows last week alone. This marks the fifth consecutive week of positive inflows and pushes the year-to-date (YTD) figure past $7.5 billion for the first time in 2025.

This is a dramatic reversal from the capital flight seen in February and March, where nearly $7 billion exited the market in just a few weeks. With a sustained turnaround now underway, questions are mounting: are we witnessing the early stages of a true bull run?

Easing Expectations Take Hold, Reduced Policy Uncertainty Sparks Renewed Risk Appetite

Since early May, both the United States and several major global economies have sent out a series of “easing” signals regarding trade and monetary policy, helping restore investor confidence in the overall policy environment.

On one hand, the tempo of negotiations between the White House and key economic partners has become more measured, easing concerns over potential trade conflicts. On the other hand, recent comments from multiple Federal Reserve officials suggest that interest rates may have peaked, and expectations for rate cuts later this year are gradually returning. Against this backdrop of dual easing, volatility in traditional financial markets has declined, prompting capital to revisit crypto assets as a viable allocation target.

Notably, improved policy predictability has played a vital role. The enhanced liquidity of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, along with regulatory softening in select regions, has given institutional investors greater confidence to re-enter the market — becoming a key driver of the current wave of capital inflows.

Capital Concentrates on Core Assets as Ethereum Ecosystem Gains Favor

This round of capital inflow shows a distinct structural preference: mainstream assets are taking the lead, with Ethereum drawing the most attention outside of Bitcoin.

Data shows that Ethereum saw an inflow of $205 million last week — the largest weekly increase so far in 2025. On a technical level, recent upgrades to the Ethereum network have significantly boosted its performance and scalability, further strengthening institutional confidence in its future role in DeFi, AI-integrated blockchain services, and Rollup-based infrastructure.

More importantly, ETH is increasingly being viewed as a “supra-sovereign asset.” It serves not only as a payment medium and collateral but also as the underlying “fuel” powering Layer 2 ecosystems. Its value proposition is shifting from that of a mere token to critical infrastructure.

Investors now regard ETH as the “digital treasury bond” of the Web3 world — offering no yield, but providing the kind of stability and liquidity expected of gateway-level assets. This evolving perception is a core reason behind the growing concentration of capital in Ethereum.

Is the Bull Market Really Back?

The billion-dollar question: is this a genuine bull market, or just a relief rally in disguise?

The answer lies not in social media sentiment but in the underlying mechanics of capital allocation, user behavior, macroeconomic conditions, and technological momentum.

Institutional Inflows Point to Renewed Confidence

The most compelling evidence is the scale of institutional involvement. Inflows of $785 million in a single week aren’t retail-driven. This kind of liquidity originates from hedge funds, family offices, and asset managers reallocating portfolios.

Furthermore, the U.S. is clearly leading the charge, contributing $681 million of the week’s total. Germany followed with $86.3 million, while Hong Kong saw inflows of $24.4 million. This suggests that institutional conviction isn’t localized — it’s global, albeit with an American epicenter.

When institutional capital starts flowing into high-risk, high-reward assets like crypto during a period of relative geopolitical tension, it’s often a forward-looking signal. These players aren’t chasing FOMO; they’re positioning ahead of anticipated monetary policy shifts or tech adoption curves.

Macro Tailwinds Are Emerging

From a macro perspective, several elements are aligning:

• Interest Rates Plateauing: While the Federal Reserve hasn’t yet pivoted to rate cuts, markets are broadly pricing in the end of the tightening cycle. A stable or easing rate environment typically favors long-duration assets, including crypto.
• Geopolitical Risk Hedging: Events like the temporary U.S.-China tariff truce and uncertainty in traditional markets (e.g., equities under pressure, weakening dollar index) are pushing investors toward alternative assets.

On-Chain and Technical Indicators Are Warming Up

Beyond capital flows, on-chain activity shows encouraging signs. Daily active addresses, total value locked (TVL), and stablecoin supply on Ethereum and Layer 2s like Arbitrum and Optimism are ticking upward. Bitcoin’s hash rate remains at all-time highs, suggesting miner confidence and long-term viability.

Meanwhile, leading indicators like the PI Cycle Top Indicator and MVRV ratio haven’t flashed overheating signals, implying that the current rally isn’t yet euphoric.

However, caution is warranted. Some metrics still suggest the market is in a transitional phase rather than full-blown euphoria:

• Retail Engagement Is Lagging: Google search trends for terms like “Bitcoin” and “Ethereum” remain relatively flat. This implies that retail FOMO, a hallmark of late-stage bull markets, hasn’t yet kicked in.
• Altcoin Cycles Are Muted: While ETH is gaining ground, most altcoins are still well below 2021 highs. Until there’s a broader rotation into mid-cap and low-cap tokens, the rally will likely remain top-heavy.

Structural Shifts Support a Longer-Term Bull Thesis

Beyond price charts and weekly inflows, the industry is undergoing foundational improvements. Major upgrades like Ethereum’s Pectra, the growing adoption of ZK-rollups, and Bitcoin’s ongoing development of Layer 2 solutions such as Lightning and Runes are laying the groundwork for long-term scalability.

Meanwhile, real-world asset (RWA) tokenization is gaining institutional traction. Firms like BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, and JPMorgan are actively exploring blockchain-based settlement for traditional securities. This convergence of traditional finance and crypto infrastructure points to a multi-year bull narrative, not just a seasonal rally.

In short, the current inflow wave is not merely speculative — it’s backed by meaningful technological and institutional tailwinds.

Final Thoughts

So, is the bull market truly back?

All signs point toward a cautious “yes.” We are seeing sustained institutional inflows, macro headwinds transforming into tailwinds, and critical technical upgrades rejuvenating foundational networks like Ethereum and Bitcoin. While the market isn’t yet euphoric — and that’s actually a good thing — it’s clearly regaining strength.

For investors still on the sidelines, the next few weeks could be pivotal. If inflows continue and altcoin markets follow suit, the 2025 bull run may not just be a theory anymore — it’ll be a reality.